Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7B 0x7bbe…16a7 crypto 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$92 · open −$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate66%176W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,981now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$399
14 days−$107
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +16.2% +5.1% 78% 75% +4.8%
≤30d 249 +4.0% -5.9% 66% 63% -9.2%
≤90d 267 +2.8% -7.0% 66% 63% -8.9%
all 267 +2.8% -7.0% 66% 63% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 63% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 51% -17.6%
15% -24.0% 26% -25.6%
20% -31.5% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$34 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1,981
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses176 / 91
Open positions21
Markets (closed)267 / 288
History coverage34d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? No 63¢ 74¢ $280 $330 +$50 (+18%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? No 75¢ 78¢ $293 $306 +$13 (+4%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? No 72¢ 77¢ $272 $290 +$18 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Yes 72¢ 92¢ $152 $193 +$41 (+27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? No 67¢ 72¢ $169 $182 +$12 (+7%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 15? Yes 71¢ 76¢ $153 $163 +$10 (+6%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? No 70¢ 64¢ $174 $158 −$16 (-9%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? No 77¢ 34¢ $226 $98 −$128 (-57%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? No 61¢ 54¢ $82 $72 −$10 (-12%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? No 25¢ 6¢ $146 $38 −$108 (-74%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $38 $32 −$6 (-17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Yes 67¢ 81¢ $22 $27 +$5 (+23%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 16? No 70¢ 59¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-16%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16? No 65¢ 55¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-16%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Yes 63¢ 65¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? No 66¢ 62¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 17? No 66¢ 53¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15? No 71¢ 34¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-53%)
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 16? No 67¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? No 65¢ 46¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? No 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? No 19¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $67 +$16 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $295 +$100 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $46 +$27 +57%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $48 +$16 +33%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 14? Jun 14 $66 +$19 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $36 +$12 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $285 +$81 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $119 −$8 -6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$14 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$6 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $67 −$39 -58%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$5 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$8 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 11? Jun 11 $152 +$51 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +50%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$7 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $43 +$4 +10%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 11? Jun 11 $122 +$38 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $24 −$13 -53%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 11? Jun 10 $8 −$3 -38%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$7 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $31 +$13 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$4 +29%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $35 +$10 +30%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 10? Jun 10 $134 +$56 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$7 +38%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 10? Jun 10 $116 +$38 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $161 −$31 -19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $9 −$8 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$4 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $13 +$4 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$4 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $49 −$14 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$4 +42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$3 +26%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$8 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $24 −$13 -54%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $47 +$6 +13%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 8? Jun 08 $28 +$12 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$15 +198%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$8 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$4 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $4 44m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $6 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $23 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $23 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 15? BUY Yes 71¢ $156 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $21 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $11 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $23 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $23 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $24 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $13 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $74 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $132 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $19 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $63 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $51 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $75 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $56 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $57 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $62 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,981.09 · official $1,983.02 (match) · 1445 history records