Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7B 0x7bbe…f158 crypto 1427 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,230 (-4%) realized −$1,219 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%655W / 918L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 122d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$101
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 362 -65.7% -69.0% 18% 18% -94.7%
≤30d 652 -31.3% -37.9% 37% 34% -63.3%
≤90d 677 -30.7% -37.3% 37% 34% -63.1%
all 1573 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 40% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 40% -38.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 39% -44.3%
15% -38.5% 38% -49.7%
20% -44.5% 36% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$29 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1,219
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses655 / 918
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1573 / 1427
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1573 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 50¢ 78¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+55%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 50¢ 22¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $308 −$308 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $251 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $21 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.00 · official $40.00 (match) · 3500 history records