Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bc0…7c44 crypto 349 markets active 3d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,821 (-21%) realized −$1,821 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%119W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$527
14 days−$1,674
30 days−$2,270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,245
weather 0% $0
sports 0% $0
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -10.8% -19.3% 35% 33% -32.7%
≤30d 331 -15.7% -23.7% 34% 32% -35.0%
≤90d 349 -13.7% -21.9% 34% 32% -34.3%
all 349 -13.7% -21.9% 34% 32% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 32% -34.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 31% -40.6%
15% -36.2% 30% -46.3%
20% -42.5% 29% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,821
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses119 / 230
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)349 / 349
History coverage30d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 349 Trades
no open positions (175 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $92 −$87 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$23 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $187 +$226 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$94 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $42 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$27 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$32 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$24 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$27 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$24 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$71 +460%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$24 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$28 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$12 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $92 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $80 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $173 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $87 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $184 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $85 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $98 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $57 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 759 history records