Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7B 0x7bc7…51ad crypto 840 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$581 (+11%) realized +$568 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%185W / 621L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$298
7 days+$233
14 days+$402
30 days+$681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$872
weather 5% +$92
sports 1% +$7
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +26.9% +14.8% 26% 26% +9.8%
≤30d 399 +34.3% +21.5% 24% 24% +14.5%
≤90d 806 +20.3% +8.8% 23% 22% +8.0%
all 806 +20.3% +8.8% 23% 22% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.8% 22% +8.0%
10% ← realistic here -1.6% 22% -2.4%
15% -11.1% 21% -11.8%
20% -19.8% 21% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$5 · ×4.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$568
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses185 / 621
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)806 / 840
History coverage54d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 806 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 7¢ 20¢ $7 $22 +$14 (+193%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$36 +342%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$8 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$83 +784%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$36 +339%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$12 -47%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$61 +577%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$23 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$87 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$92 +1150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$24 +456%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$28 +529%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$130 +490%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$16 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $23 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 19m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.12 · official $40.12 (match) · 2347 history records