Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bcd…a2b5 other 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$52 (+1%) realized +$58 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%12W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$277
7 days−$401
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$488
sports 10% +$679
world 6% −$99
crypto 4% −$120
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -7.6% -16.4% 15% 12% -17.9%
≤30d 64 -10.1% -18.7% 16% 12% -9.9%
≤90d 64 -10.1% -18.7% 16% 12% -9.9%
all 66 -9.8% -18.4% 18% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 12% -9.8%
10% -26.2% 12% -18.5%
15% -33.3% 12% -26.3%
20% -39.9% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$41 · ×4.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses12 / 54
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions7
Markets (closed)66 / 73
History coverage526d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $115 $109 −$6 (-5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 −$3 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$15 -71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $26 −$3 -13%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $169 −$51 -30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $719 +$25 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $113 −$110 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$19 +364%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $102 +$148 +145%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$8 -31%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $62 −$7 -12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $213 −$208 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $309 −$11 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$100 -50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +168%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$7 -13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $222 −$4 -2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$830 +1467%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $178 +$403 +226%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $85 −$83 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$28 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 2m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $67 5m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 46m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 47m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 48m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 50m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 50m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 51m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 15h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 15h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 22h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 22h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 25h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 25h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 26h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.21 · official $295.21 (match) · 195 history records