Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bd0…f9e7 sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-2%) realized −$38 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%22W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$100
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$20
other 13% −$24
crypto 3% +$16
world 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +16.4% +5.3% 55% 55% +0.4%
≤30d 47 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 47% -10.0%
≤90d 47 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 47% -10.0%
all 47 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 47% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 47% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 45% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 45% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 38% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$24 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions10
Markets (closed)47 / 57
History coverage11d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $45 $61 +$16 (+35%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $57 $37 −$21 (-36%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 48¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 +$41 +134%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$14 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $29 +$33 +114%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$27 +90%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$1 -2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$11 +38%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$23 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$35 +114%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$29 +97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $30 −$2 -7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$38 +123%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$23 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$31 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$18 +59%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $7 +$18 +257%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$48 +156%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$37 +121%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$34 +112%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$8 +149%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $32 −$32 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $38 +$50 +132%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $29 +$39 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $29 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $63 19h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $30 46h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 46h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 87¢ $30 46h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $29 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $30 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 3d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $28 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.69 · official $353.69 (match) · 95 history records