Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7bd5…6943 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,963 (-35%) realized −$4,833 · open −$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$74
14 days+$33
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$1,488
tech 11% −$1,500
other 10% −$796
politics 7% −$1,038
sports 5% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +73.2% +56.7% 100% 100% +56.7%
≤30d 8 +6.0% -4.1% 50% 50% +33.5%
≤90d 11 -22.9% -30.3% 36% 36% -36.1%
all 34 -45.3% -50.5% 32% 32% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.5% 32% -41.8%
10% -55.2% 26% -47.4%
15% -59.5% 21% -52.5%
20% -63.5% 15% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$506) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -52% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$306 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$570
Realized−$4,833
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage222d
Avg bet$394
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $500 $344 −$156 (-31%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 76¢ 85¢ $200 $226 +$26 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$176 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026? Jan 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 20 $100 −$77 -77%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $100 −$54 -54%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026? Jan 17 $1,319 −$1,319 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $500 +$141 +28%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 13 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026? Jan 12 $1,517 +$161 +11%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026? Jan 12 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026? Jan 12 $260 +$161 +62%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026? Jan 11 $919 +$443 +48%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026? Jan 08 $500 +$139 +28%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026? Jan 08 $1,359 +$621 +46%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026? Jan 07 $1,000 +$214 +21%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 04 $250 −$250 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 04 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 04 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mamdani visit the White House by December 31? Nov 20 $888 −$888 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novembe Nov 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $200 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 7d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $102 17d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 17d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 17d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 15¢ $200 39d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 11¢ $186 75d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 160d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 1¢ $23 160d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $46 160d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 22¢ $46 160d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,319 163d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $641 166d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $500 166d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $500 167d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,678 167d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,517 168d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 169d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 169d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $260 169d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $919 170d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $500 170d
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $500 171d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $200 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $570.17 · official $570.17 (match) · 78 history records