Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bd5…0acb other 1459 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$450 (-8%) realized −$449 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%627W / 827L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$253
14 days+$273
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$49
sports 36% +$208
crypto 13% −$29
weather 1% +$11
world 1% −$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -23.8% -31.1% 50% 40% +8.1%
≤30d 133 -14.8% -22.9% 43% 41% +3.2%
≤90d 561 -24.0% -31.2% 36% 33% -8.7%
all 1454 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 42% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 42% -7.3%
10% -21.8% 40% -16.2%
15% -29.4% 39% -24.3%
20% -36.3% 37% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$449
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses627 / 827
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1454 / 1459
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $230 +$160 +69%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$20 +65%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $50 −$39 -77%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $263 +$125 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$21 -20%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $178 +$105 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$9 +17%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $50 +$12 +23%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $16 −$7 -46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $66 +$20 +30%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 +$6 +11%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $11 −$8 -77%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $2 +$3 +101%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $33 +$7 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +129%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$3 +129%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +97%
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Nara Club win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $34 15h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $41 31h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $155 41h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 60¢ $30 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 16¢ $2 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 16¢ $9 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $50 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $388 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $263 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $81 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $283 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $178 5d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $6 6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $50 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 13¢ $27 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 23¢ $21 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $50 6d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $62 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.55 · official $158.55 (match) · 3500 history records