Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7B 0x7bd6…10d4 world 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$467 (+2%) realized +$487 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%38W / 23L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4,628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$484
14 days+$1,078
30 days+$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$1,988
politics 26% +$948
other 16% −$228
tech 13% +$421
sports 6% +$880
finance 6% +$96
crypto 2% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +23.3% +11.6% 75% 75% +17.2%
≤30d 41 +7.0% -3.2% 68% 54% -8.5%
≤90d 61 +2.2% -7.5% 62% 46% -9.2%
all 61 +2.2% -7.5% 62% 46% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 46% -9.2%
10% -16.4% 33% -17.9%
15% -24.4% 20% -25.8%
20% -31.8% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$170 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$4,628
Realized+$487
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses38 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions12
Markets (closed)61 / 73
History coverage64d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 65¢ 94¢ $650 $944 +$294 (+45%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 86¢ 89¢ $884 $916 +$32 (+4%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 64¢ 72¢ $588 $670 +$82 (+14%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 50¢ 33¢ $1,020 $661 −$359 (-35%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 59¢ 60¢ $630 $651 +$21 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $166 $165 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $158 $157 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $118 $121 +$3 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $106 $105 −$1 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $82 $93 +$11 (+13%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 20¢ $140 $38 −$102 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 23 $381 +$123 +32%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 23 $193 −$21 -11%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 19 $535 +$211 +40%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $530 +$170 +32%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 14 $579 −$434 -75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $166 −$166 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $324 −$324 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $367 +$832 +226%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 13 $473 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $146 +$54 +37%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $165 +$35 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $495 +$305 +62%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $514 +$190 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $890 +$157 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $104 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $455 +$128 +28%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $496 −$99 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $25 $0 +1%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 08 $46 +$15 +32%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $519 −$507 -98%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 05 $476 +$171 +36%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $797 +$453 +57%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $806 +$216 +27%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $506 +$30 +6%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $506 +$42 +8%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 30 $31 +$24 +79%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $400 −$63 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $200 −$42 -21%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 29 $436 +$156 +36%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $465 −$465 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1,335 −$1,335 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $1,000 +$226 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $1,000 +$145 +14%
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 26 $31 +$28 +90%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? May 18 $302 −$25 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 18 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 18 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 18 $355 −$8 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 15 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? May 03 $202 −$25 -12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? May 03 $302 −$23 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 65¢ $285 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 64¢ $29 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 62¢ $139 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 61¢ $45 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 60¢ $112 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 59¢ $18 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 59¢ $3 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 59¢ $3 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 58¢ $41 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 57¢ $97 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 56¢ $4 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 56¢ $26 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 50¢ $5 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 49¢ $8 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 49¢ $50 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 49¢ $65 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 49¢ $28 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 47¢ $22 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 47¢ $84 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 46¢ $47 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 45¢ $54 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 42¢ $21 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 40¢ $138 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 38¢ $32 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $107 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $167 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $159 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,628.44 · official $4,696.27 · 402 history records