Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7bd6…e4d5 other 17 markets active 3d ago coverage 731d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$10
politics 28% +$29
sports 21% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +48.1% +34.0% 100% 50% -9.2%
≤90d 2 +48.1% +34.0% 100% 50% -9.2%
all 16 +5.1% -4.9% 69% 25% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 25% -10.0%
10% -14.0% 12% -18.6%
15% -22.3% 12% -26.5%
20% -29.9% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$18 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

731d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage731d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 20 $1,600 +$2 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +96%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 20 $800 +$1 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Feb 19 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Sep 18 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 23 $77 −$29 -38%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 22 $100 −$40 -40%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 22 $3 $0 +11%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend Dec 21 $13 +$29 +223%
Ripple ETF approved by July 31? Dec 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Red Bull win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? Dec 03 $172 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 30 $1,271 +$25 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Sep 03 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? Jul 30 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Shkreli deactivate his X account by Friday? Jun 27 $670 −$12 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1,351 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $5 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $5 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $48 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $6 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $10 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $40 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $47 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.92 · official $14.92 (match) · 75 history records