Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7B 0x7bd8…d98f other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+3%) realized +$59 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%32W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$249
14 days+$262
30 days+$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$185
other 27% −$171
politics 6% +$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% +$2
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 45% +20.4%
≤30d 50 +4.7% -5.3% 46% 46% +19.9%
≤90d 60 +1.3% -8.3% 43% 43% +18.3%
all 86 -14.5% -22.7% 37% 34% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 34% -7.1%
10% -30.1% 34% -16.0%
15% -36.8% 34% -24.1%
20% -43.0% 30% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses32 / 54
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)86 / 93
History coverage229d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 86¢ $27 $35 +$8 (+29%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 22¢ $26 $12 −$14 (-54%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Yes 26¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $41 +$42 +103%
Takehiro Tomiyasu: 1+ goals Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Pervis Estupiñán: 1+ goals Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $69 +$31 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $36 +$24 +67%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $65 +$35 +54%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$51 -99%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 +$10 +388%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $43 +$47 +108%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $23 +$27 +114%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $43 +$40 +93%
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Vitinha: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 +$54 +119%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $12 +$6 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $21 +$30 +140%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $24 +$21 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$25 +99%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $14 +$13 +95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$7 +74%
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 +$5 +226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +263%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +353%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Weston McKennie: 1+ goals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 1h
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 17h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $14 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $3 18h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 18h
Takehiro Tomiyasu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $3 38h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 38h
Pervis Estupiñán: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $2 42h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $10 42h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $36 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $29 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $26 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $6 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $46 3d
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.09 · official $65.51 · 325 history records