Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

7B 0x7bdc…9b4c other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,219 (+28%) realized +$1,537 · open −$318

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate54%7W / 6L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$315per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$311

7 days+$1,470

14 days+$1,468

30 days+$1,468

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)-16.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+19.7%	+8.3%	70%	70%	+28.9%
≤30d	11	+8.8%	-1.6%	64%	64%	+28.9%
≤90d	11	+8.8%	-1.6%	64%	64%	+28.9%
all	13	-7.9%	-16.7%	54%	54%	+20.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.7%	54%	+20.1%
10%	-24.7%	54%	+8.6%
15%	-32.0%	54%	-1.9%
20%	-38.6%	38%	-11.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -51% → late +29% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$268 vs −$112 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage

Net worth$332

Realized+$1,537

Unrealized−$318

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses7 / 6

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 14

History coverage128d

Avg bet$315

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	67¢	34¢	$650	$332	−$318 (-49%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$355	+$259	+73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$354	+$202	+57%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$152	−$150	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$354	+$202	+57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$153	+$222	+146%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$157	−$155	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$557	+$407	+73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$555	+$254	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$725	+$330	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-95%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh	Feb 12	$224	−$195	-87%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p	Feb 12	$69	−$69	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$555	2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$613	2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$355	7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$152	26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	63¢	$354	26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$354	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$153	2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$157	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$964	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$557	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$555	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,055	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$725	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$2	7d
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh	BUY No	12¢	$10	128d
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh	BUY No	12¢	$81	128d
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p	BUY Yes	9¢	$69	128d
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh	BUY No	12¢	$83	128d
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh	SELL No	7¢	$29	128d
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh	BUY No	10¢	$50	128d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.40 · official $361.41 · 26 history records