Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7bdd…5fb3
crypto · 182 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$227 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$243 · open −$27
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$397
Realized−$243
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses85 / 75
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions22
Markets (closed)160 / 182
History coverage304d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 22 History 160 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days−$6
14 days−$211
30 days−$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? No 92¢ 95¢ $92 $95 +$3 (+3%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 98¢ $61 $71 +$10 (+16%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 86¢ $42 $49 +$8 (+19%)
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $44 $36 −$8 (-18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $33 $26 −$6 (-20%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+59%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? Yes 34¢ 14¢ $39 $17 −$22 (-57%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $21 $12 −$10 (-45%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Japan 75¢ 74¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? No 73¢ 58¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Australia 69¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? No 43¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? No 12¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $99 −$8 -8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $106 +$14 +14%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 +$22 +650%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $45 +$16 +36%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $96 +$53 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $43 −$6 -14%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $70 −$14 -21%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $16 −$2 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $188 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $70 −$13 -19%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $129 +$12 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $50 −$24 -48%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $27 +$6 +21%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $138 +$12 +9%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 +$21 +144%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $33 +$5 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $34 +$11 +34%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 04 $263 +$23 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $281 +$17 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $35 −$34 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $773 +$25 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $307 +$10 +3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $107 −$78 -72%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $92 −$89 -97%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi May 31 $92 −$85 -93%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May? May 31 $12 −$2 -15%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? May 31 $218 −$101 -46%
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in May? May 28 $121 −$16 -14%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C May 24 $65 −$7 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 24 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May? May 19 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 39% +$64
other 26% −$171
tech 16% −$50
politics 10% −$189
sports 6% +$93
world 1% −$22
finance 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $91 0m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $99 24m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 75¢ $9 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $2 2h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $3 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $95 6h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $99 6h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $54 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $48 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $39 7h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL No 95¢ $95 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $37 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 26h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 80¢ $49 27h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $50 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 28h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $5 28h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 42h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $87 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +3.3% -6.5% 43% 32% -9.9%
≤30d 57 -26.3% -33.3% 35% 21% -18.5%
≤90d 135 -12.2% -20.6% 49% 34% -15.6%
all 160 -9.1% -17.7% 53% 38% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 38% -10.9%
10% -25.6% 25% -19.4%
15% -32.8% 17% -27.2%
20% -39.4% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.65 · official $396.66 (match) · 825 history records