Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7B 0x7bde…cd7b world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$63 (+3%) realized +$63 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$421per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-6.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	+3.5%	-6.4%	50%	0%	-6.4%
≤90d	4	+3.5%	-6.4%	50%	0%	-6.4%
all	4	+3.5%	-6.4%	50%	0%	-6.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.4%	0%	-6.4%
10%	-15.3%	0%	-15.3%
15%	-23.5%	0%	-23.5%
20%	-31.0%	0%	-31.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$31 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$304

Realized+$63

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage13d

Avg bet$421

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	93¢	93¢	$304	$304	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors?	Jun 14	$468	+$30	+6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by	Jun 14	$469	$0	+0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?	Jun 13	$435	+$33	+8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Jun 13	$426	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$304	1h
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors?	BUY No	94¢	$468	11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by	SELL No	94¢	$469	11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by	BUY No	94¢	$469	12d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?	BUY No	93¢	$435	12d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?	SELL No	95¢	$426	12d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$426	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.11 · official $304.11 (match) · 9 history records