Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7be1…6f94
crypto · 405 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$293 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$325 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized−$325
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses231 / 166
Open positions8
Markets (closed)397 / 405
History coverage98d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 8 History 397 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$226
14 days−$189
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 46¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+127%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Yes 15¢ 27¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+84%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Yes 13¢ 23¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+77%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$11 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $84 −$84 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$72 +421%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $510 −$510 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $233 +$56 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $95 +$14 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $316 +$116 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $40 −$38 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$53 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $191 +$130 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $444 −$266 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $229 +$225 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$8 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$7 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$8 +51%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 06 $19 +$10 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 06 $16 +$8 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 06 $24 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$5 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11PM ET Jun 06 $9 +$6 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11PM ET Jun 06 $9 +$6 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $6 +$4 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $6 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1AM ET May 31 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 31 $1 +$4 +331%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 31 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 31 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 31 $3 +$2 +57%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% −$324
sports 8% −$81
other 5% −$4
world 1% +$86
weather 1% +$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $19 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +9.3% -1.1% 62% 62% -17.9%
≤30d 293 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 55% -15.0%
≤90d 294 +1.1% -8.6% 67% 55% -12.7%
all 397 -4.7% -13.7% 58% 47% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 47% -16.0%
10% -22.0% 40% -24.0%
15% -29.5% 32% -31.4%
20% -36.4% 23% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.18 · official $37.18 (match) · 1121 history records