Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7B 0x7be4…8477 other 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,882 (+11%) realized +$2,634 · open +$248
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate80%188W / 46L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$680
politics 20% +$47
weather 11% +$59
sports 9% +$118
crypto 8% +$14
world 8% +$254
tech 4% +$33
culture 4% +$9
finance 3% −$104
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 40 +7.2% -3.0% 68% 20% -1.2%
≤90d 234 +2.4% -7.3% 80% 16% -6.4%
all 234 +2.4% -7.3% 80% 16% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 16% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 10% -15.3%
15% -24.3% 6% -23.5%
20% -31.7% 4% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$908
Realized+$2,634
Unrealized+$248
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses188 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions10
Markets (closed)234 / 244
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$110
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $263 $370 +$108 (+41%)
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $156 $175 +$19 (+12%)
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $136 $143 +$7 (+5%)
Will BP be acquired before 2027? Yes 0¢ 12¢ $0 $80 +$80 (+0%)
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $42 $47 +$5 (+11%)
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? No 0¢ 90¢ $0 $26 +$26 (+0%)
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026? Yes 0¢ 16¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -22%
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Jun 04 $187 +$245 +131%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Jun 03 $255 +$22 +9%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 01 $294 $0 +0%
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026? Jun 01 $94 +$2 +2%
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? May 30 $94 −$8 -9%
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? May 28 $261 +$27 +10%
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? May 28 $87 +$74 +86%
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the May 28 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? May 28 $472 +$21 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $179 −$2 -1%
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? May 27 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 27 $161 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26? May 27 $164 +$1 +1%
Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 American League Championship Serie May 27 $33 +$4 +11%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? May 26 $134 −$33 -24%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 26 $1 $0 +2%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 26 $91 +$1 +1%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? May 26 $1 $0 -13%
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? May 26 $67 +$1 +1%
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? May 26 $9 −$3 -32%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? May 26 $139 +$7 +5%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $66 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? May 25 $287 −$5 -2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? May 25 $78 +$1 +2%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? May 25 $56 +$13 +23%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? May 24 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? May 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el May 24 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? May 24 $377 −$10 -3%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $303 +$1 +0%
Will Aurora Gaming win DreamLeague Season 29? May 24 $92 −$5 -6%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $70 −$13 -19%
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 24 $64 +$6 +9%
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? May 24 $11 +$3 +26%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $236 +$9 +4%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? May 23 $2 $0 +7%
Will Team Falcons win DreamLeague Season 29? May 23 $7 +$1 +9%
Will PARIVISION win DreamLeague Season 29? May 23 $6 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? May 23 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $11 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on May 2 May 23 $95 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $2 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $374 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 16m
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $28 16m
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 33m
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 52¢ $38 1h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 51¢ $72 1h
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $19 25h
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25h
Will BP be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $907.86 · official $907.86 (match) · 3500 history records