Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7bea…a4a9 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,434 (+21%) realized +$1,525 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,799now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,407
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-67.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -63.7% -67.1% 20% 20% +24.9%
≤30d 5 -63.7% -67.1% 20% 20% +24.9%
≤90d 5 -63.7% -67.1% 20% 20% +24.9%
all 5 -63.7% -67.1% 20% 20% +24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.1% 20% +24.9%
10% -70.3% 20% +12.9%
15% ← realistic here -73.2% 20% +2.0%
20% -75.8% 20% -8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt +38% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,444 vs −$236 · ×10.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2,799
Realized+$1,525
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions29
Markets (closed)5 / 34
History coverage5d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $101 $100 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $101 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $101 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $101 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $97 −$4 (-4%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $310 −$306 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $330 −$330 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $215 −$210 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2,994 +$2,444 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $103 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $85 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $104 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $310 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,799.17 · official $2,799.24 (match) · 104 history records