Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bec…b4e2 other 17 markets active 12h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$763 (-15%) realized −$623 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day70.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$894
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-57.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -53.4% -57.8% 14% 14% -23.5%
≤30d 7 -53.4% -57.8% 14% 14% -23.5%
≤90d 7 -53.4% -57.8% 14% 14% -23.5%
all 7 -53.4% -57.8% 14% 14% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.8% 14% -23.5%
10% -61.9% 14% -30.8%
15% ← realistic here -65.6% 14% -37.5%
20% -68.9% 0% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$496 vs −$208 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$623
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)7 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day70.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $56 $19 −$37 (-66%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $53 $8 −$44 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $40 $8 −$32 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $2,027 −$130 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $374 −$12 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,388 +$496 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $587 −$565 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $519 −$498 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $155 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $37 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $43 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $62 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $62 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $99 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $58 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $62 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $62 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $176 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $155 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $192 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $266 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $161 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $307 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $155 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $23 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $184 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $98 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $277 13h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $2,027 13h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 15h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,200 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.56 · official $43.56 (match) · 144 history records