Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bed…bf63 crypto 388 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$818 (-9%) realized −$817 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%175W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$53
14 days−$725
30 days−$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% −$126
crypto 25% −$432
other 10% −$179
finance 10% −$99
sports 8% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -14.1% -22.3% 20% 9% -11.0%
≤30d 137 -17.7% -25.5% 26% 14% -16.5%
≤90d 142 -11.0% -19.5% 27% 16% -16.4%
all 387 -9.2% -17.8% 45% 40% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 40% -18.4%
10% -25.7% 26% -26.2%
15% -32.9% 12% -33.3%
20% -39.5% 10% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$817
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses175 / 212
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)387 / 388
History coverage119d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 30? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? Jun 30 $104 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? Jun 29 $61 −$7 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 30? Jun 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 30? Jun 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $146 +$54 +37%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 29? Jun 29 $164 −$9 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? Jun 29 $314 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 29? Jun 29 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $76 −$9 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 29? Jun 28 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29? Jun 28 $15 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 29? Jun 28 $5 −$1 -11%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $15 +$6 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $142 −$11 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28? Jun 27 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? Jun 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $211 +$53 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $11 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $8 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $12 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $212 +$29 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $21 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $130 −$31 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $71 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? Jun 25 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $39 −$19 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $58 −$16 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $38 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $32 +$8 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $17 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $212 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $36 −$8 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 3m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? SELL No 66¢ $49 12m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? SELL No 68¢ $6 15m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? SELL No 68¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? SELL No 68¢ $8 20m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? BUY No 67¢ $34 23m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? BUY No 67¢ $34 23m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $32 33m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? SELL No 71¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? BUY No 71¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? BUY No 71¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? BUY No 71¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.25 · official $16.00 · 1517 history records