Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7bf1…3f67
weather · 206 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$374 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$371 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$449
Realized−$371
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses176 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)201 / 206
History coverage12d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day291.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 201 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days−$318
14 days−$371
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? No 98¢ 91¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Yes 98¢ 95¢ $140 $136 −$4 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+250%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 6? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 9? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Yes 92¢ 0¢ $620 $0 −$620 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $633 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $794 −$12 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $396 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $282 −$3 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $829 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$16 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 +$33 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $746 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $23 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $730 +$6 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $226 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $268 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $447 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $534 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $572 +$21 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $204 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $143 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $678 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $128 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $654 +$72 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $289 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $230 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $433 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $924 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 11 $2 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $519 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $615 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $548 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $126 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $523 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $459 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $458 +$30 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $615 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $587 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $577 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $595 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $199 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $622 −$620 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $68 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$400
other 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 4m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 4m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $256 5m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $148 5m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 6m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 8m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $19 11m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 12m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $72 13m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $200 13m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $28 14m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $65 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $127 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $17 17m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $86 20m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $17 35m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $32 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +11.3% +0.7% 88% 8% -10.1%
≤30d 201 +6.2% -3.9% 88% 7% -10.0%
≤90d 201 +6.2% -3.9% 88% 7% -10.0%
all 201 +6.2% -3.9% 88% 7% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover291.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 7% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 4% -18.6%
15% -21.5% 3% -26.4%
20% -29.2% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.41 · official $449.41 (match) · 3500 history records