Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7B 0x7bf4…55f5 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$32 (-39%) realized −$31 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip

Net edge-60%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%1W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-56.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-51.8%	-56.4%	14%	14%	-48.2%
≤30d	7	-51.8%	-56.4%	14%	14%	-48.2%
≤90d	7	-51.8%	-56.4%	14%	14%	-48.2%
all	7	-51.8%	-56.4%	14%	14%	-48.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.4%	14%	-48.2%
10%	-60.6%	14%	-53.2%
15%	-64.4%	14%	-57.7%
20%	-67.9%	14%	-61.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -43% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$8 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.48 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$19

Realized−$31

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses1 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)7 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 27	$10	+$24	+237%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$34	1h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	5h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	6h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	6h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	7h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	28¢	$10	8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	11h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	11h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	11h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.80 · official $18.80 (match) · 10 history records