Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bf6…342e crypto 789 markets active 5h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (265 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$186 (-4%) realized −$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%496W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day264.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$52
14 days−$234
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$274
other 2% −$15
sports 1% −$16
world 1% +$73
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (265 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -6.1% -15.1% 83% 23% -16.3%
≤30d 789 -3.9% -13.1% 63% 37% -13.9%
≤90d 789 -3.9% -13.1% 63% 37% -13.9%
all 789 -3.9% -13.1% 63% 37% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover264.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 37% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 28% -22.2%
15% -29.0% 20% -29.7%
20% -35.9% 16% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses496 / 293
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)789 / 789
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day264.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 789 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 14h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL No 21¢ $2 14h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 22¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records