Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bf8…a428 crypto 651 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$651 (-1%) realized −$649 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%329W / 321L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$135
14 days−$279
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -36.0% -42.1% 43% 29% -59.4%
≤30d 47 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 49% -17.0%
≤90d 398 +3.2% -6.7% 49% 46% -16.8%
all 650 +0.9% -8.7% 51% 47% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 47% -12.1%
10% -17.4% 43% -20.5%
15% -25.4% 37% -28.2%
20% -32.7% 31% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$51 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$649
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses329 / 321
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)650 / 651
History coverage132d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 184 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $122 −$95 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$45 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $250 −$220 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 8, 9AM ET? Jun 08 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$32 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $93 +$80 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $52 +$61 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $57 +$63 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $105 −$61 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$16 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET Jun 07 $78 +$42 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $105 +$90 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $78 −$73 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $97 +$131 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $16 +$13 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $21 +$22 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $31 +$32 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $14 +$7 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 04 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 20 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 20 $50 −$46 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 20 $50 −$48 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $16 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $36 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $109 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2312 history records