Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7B 0x7bf9…be26 sports 927 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,934 (-2%) realized −$2,902 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate70%644W / 282L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$457est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$412
14 days−$224
30 days−$972
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,465
crypto 3% −$350
other 0% −$96
politics 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -14.2% -22.4% 59% 41% -25.2%
≤30d 52 -4.7% -13.8% 67% 44% -16.2%
≤90d 575 -5.7% -14.7% 70% 48% -14.3%
all 926 -5.1% -14.2% 70% 48% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 48% -11.4%
10% -22.4% 32% -19.9%
15% -29.9% 20% -27.6%
20% -36.7% 12% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$97 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$2,902
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses644 / 282
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$457
Open positions1
Markets (closed)926 / 927
History coverage109d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 926 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Thiago Seyboth Wild 60¢ 52¢ $224 $192 −$32 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 179 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $183 +$44 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $170 +$13 +8%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $122 +$47 +39%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $206 +$29 +14%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $113 +$5 +4%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $45 −$45 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $200 −$196 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $166 −$165 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $111 +$55 +49%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 15 $385 −$276 -72%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $260 +$16 +6%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $138 +$121 +88%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $111 +$27 +25%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $66 −$65 -98%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $39 −$38 -98%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 11 $41 −$2 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $23 +$18 +79%
Foggia: Lucia Bronzetti vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 06 $832 −$824 -99%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha Jun 06 $803 +$30 +4%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $700 +$102 +15%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 06 $407 +$293 +72%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Marc Polmans Jun 06 $429 −$22 -5%
Libema Open, Qualification: Alexander Maarten Jong vs Shintaro Mochizu Jun 06 $353 +$76 +22%
Libema Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Niels Visker Jun 06 $164 +$189 +116%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Luka Mikrut Jun 06 $100 +$64 +64%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $91 −$91 -100%
Birmingham: Harry Wendelken vs Mark Lajal Jun 04 $406 +$76 +19%
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 04 $379 +$28 +7%
Birmingham: Alex Bolt vs Arthur Fery Jun 04 $345 +$33 +10%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 04 $294 +$51 +17%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 04 $269 +$26 +10%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana Jun 04 $120 +$148 +123%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Jun 04 $112 +$9 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 25 $190 −$86 -45%
Roland Garros ATP: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Berrettini May 25 $99 +$3 +3%
Set 1 Winner: Busta vs Lehecka May 25 $78 +$21 +27%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $224 −$223 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Katarina Zavatska vs Lucia Bronzetti May 22 $406 −$406 -100%
Istanbul: Franco Agamenone vs Andrej Nedic May 22 $375 +$31 +8%
Bengaluru 3: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Alastair Gray May 22 $320 +$55 +17%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 22 $301 +$19 +6%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov May 22 $242 +$59 +24%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Tea Kovacevic vs Ani Amiraghyan May 22 $265 −$24 -9%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $174 +$91 +52%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $111 +$63 +57%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Roberto Carb May 20 $112 −$110 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $161 −$159 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Grigor Dimitrov May 19 $609 −$465 -76%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Clement Tabur May 19 $424 +$202 +48%
Bengaluru 3: Grigoriy Lomakin vs Alex Hernandez May 19 $392 +$33 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 60¢ $227 27m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 100¢ $227 30m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 80¢ $183 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 86¢ $183 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $170 1h
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Juan Manuel La Serna 100¢ $170 1h
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 71¢ $122 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $122 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 96¢ $117 2h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $118 2h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 95¢ $113 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 96¢ $113 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 75¢ $89 3h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 79¢ $45 5h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 32¢ $200 46h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 72¢ $166 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 66¢ $111 2d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 74¢ $110 2d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Katarzyna Kawa 23¢ $109 2d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 56¢ $276 3d
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 97¢ $276 3d
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 91¢ $260 3d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 99¢ $260 3d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 52¢ $138 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena SELL Jesper de Jong 98¢ $139 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Jesper de Jong 78¢ $111 3d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 42¢ $66 5d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Dusan Lajovic 38¢ $39 6d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus SELL Sinja Kraus 40¢ $39 6d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 41¢ $41 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.36 · official $192.36 (match) · 1875 history records