Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7B 0x7bfe…1ce1 crypto 1272 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$294 (-1%) realized −$294 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate82%1041W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$321
14 days−$604
30 days−$838
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$887
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -1.7% -11.1% 75% 16% -13.4%
≤30d 654 +0.4% -9.2% 73% 28% -11.1%
≤90d 1272 -0.4% -9.9% 82% 20% -11.1%
all 1272 -0.4% -9.9% 82% 20% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 20% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 6% -19.6%
15% -26.4% 3% -27.4%
20% -33.6% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$21 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1041 / 231
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1272 / 1272
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1272 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $120 −$49 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $47 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $48 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $47 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $43 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $45 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $47 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $48 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $43 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $46 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $88 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $98 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $144 −$46 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $93 −$60 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $81 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $91 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $95 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $46 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $36 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $44 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $64 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $57 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $64 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $69 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $61 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $47 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $46 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $45 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $46 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records