Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:37:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c00…2171 other 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$26
14 days−$35
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$27
other 26% −$22
sports 15% −$12
crypto 8% −$10
world 5% −$8
culture 4% −$6
economics 4% −$3
tech 3% −$3
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 74 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 152 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 160 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 148
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage99d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $258 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $129 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $492 −$4 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $203 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $68 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $123 −$2 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $28 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $442 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $215 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $57 −$8 -15%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $262 −$2 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 09 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $166 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $58 −$1 -1%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 +1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $221 −$2 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $55 −$1 -3%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $45 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$1 -3%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $239 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $109 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $86 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $331 −$2 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $100 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $115 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $68 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $64 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $64 5h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $60 6h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $60 10h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $65 10h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $9 18h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $44 18h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $11 18h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $63 19h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $64 24h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $67 25h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $67 32h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $66 32h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $65 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $67 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $67 47h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $68 47h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $69 2d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $67 2d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $61 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $61 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 93¢ $67 3d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.96 · official $66.96 (match) · 707 history records