Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c01…f7a7 other 35 markets active 22h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$142 (-7%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$372
7 days−$151
14 days−$181
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$81
other 48% −$240
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +39.2% +25.9% 32% 32% -18.1%
≤30d 26 +33.8% +21.1% 31% 31% -19.7%
≤90d 26 +33.8% +21.1% 31% 31% -19.7%
all 27 +34.3% +21.5% 33% 33% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.5% 33% -18.1%
10% +9.8% 33% -26.0%
15% -0.8% 33% -33.1%
20% -10.5% 30% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +79% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$58 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 35
History coverage132d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$194 +474%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +120%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 −$14 -17%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $153 −$13 -8%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $154 −$104 -68%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $194 −$142 -73%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $74 +$173 +233%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $81 +$124 +152%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $79 −$53 -67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $40 +$41 +101%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +272%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $35 +$250 +711%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $49 +$22 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $51 21h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $18 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY $21 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY $21 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 14¢ $62 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 45¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $68 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $140 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 32¢ $114 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $82 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $123 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $247 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $45 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY $21 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $23 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records