Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c01…0a92 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$113 (-7%) realized −$112 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$43
14 days−$136
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$95
sports 17% −$41
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +12.7% +1.9% 35% 24% -12.9%
≤30d 40 +4.6% -5.4% 35% 25% -17.8%
≤90d 40 +4.6% -5.4% 35% 25% -17.8%
all 40 +4.6% -5.4% 35% 25% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 25% -17.8%
10% -14.4% 22% -25.7%
15% -22.7% 20% -32.9%
20% -30.3% 18% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage14d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$8 -30%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 +$11 +72%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 -29%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$13 -49%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19 +$6 +31%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $41 −$23 -57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $43 −$20 -48%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $57 +$6 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $88 $0 -0%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$18 -60%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $118 +$5 +5%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$13 -66%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $156 +$3 +2%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$15 -74%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 +$38 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 +$65 +786%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $61 −$57 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$14 -68%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$18 -59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $67 −$16 -24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$26 +62%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$25 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$101 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $131 +$58 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$9 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $70 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $25 11h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $19 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 32¢ $22 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 25h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $63 35h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $57 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $47 36h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 36h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 36h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 43¢ $30 36h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $67 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.52 · official $70.52 (match) · 99 history records