Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c02…7555 sports 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$289 (-4%) realized −$277 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate26%20W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$59
14 days−$77
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$110
finance 17% −$33
politics 12% $0
tech 10% −$5
sports 10% −$43
world 5% −$52
culture 3% −$5
weather 3% −$42
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +20.9% +9.4% 44% 22% -27.9%
≤30d 22 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 27% -27.6%
≤90d 38 -4.0% -13.1% 39% 26% -16.6%
all 76 -16.2% -24.2% 26% 14% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 14% -13.3%
10% -31.5% 9% -21.6%
15% -38.1% 9% -29.2%
20% -44.2% 5% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$277
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses20 / 56
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage218d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will there be 4+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft? No 31¢ 1¢ $13 $0 −$12 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 25 $148 −$24 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $80 −$35 -44%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $2 $0 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $1 +$3 +248%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$8 -60%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $5 −$1 -24%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Indonesia vs Nepal May 28 $7 +$3 +43%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $10 +$9 +85%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $6 −$2 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $156 +$4 +3%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 19 $89 −$1 -2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $12 −$11 -99%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 14 $190 −$9 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4? May 04 $23 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 11 $16 −$1 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $16 $0 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 09 $140 −$1 -0%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $115 +$1 +0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 04 $10 +$2 +22%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 03 $7 +$3 +36%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $14 +$2 +13%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $183 +$1 +1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 26 $10 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026? Feb 26 $55 −$55 -100%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $190 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $45 $0 -1%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $28 −$4 -13%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 21 $17 −$1 -6%
Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 15m? Feb 20 $200 −$5 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 37¢ $38 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 41¢ $29 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 41¢ $29 4h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 41¢ $1 4h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 41¢ $2 5h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 41¢ $1 6h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 41¢ $1 7h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 41¢ $1 7h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 41¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 29¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 49¢ $24 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 49¢ $24 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 49¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 49¢ $24 8h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 41¢ $1 8h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 47¢ $24 9h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 47¢ $86 9h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 47¢ $24 9h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 47¢ $15 9h
Will there be 4+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 31¢ $13 32h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $10 40h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 36¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $2 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 28¢ $1 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 42¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.62 · official $3.62 (match) · 308 history records