Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c02…cc75 crypto 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$192 (-10%) realized −$192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%38W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$230
tech 5% +$10
sports 1% +$7
other 0% −$5
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -25.2% -32.3% 50% 43% -26.2%
≤30d 14 -25.2% -32.3% 50% 43% -26.2%
≤90d 75 -10.0% -18.6% 51% 39% -19.8%
all 75 -10.0% -18.6% 51% 39% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 39% -19.8%
10% -26.4% 28% -27.5%
15% -33.5% 23% -34.5%
20% -40.0% 17% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses38 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage59d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$3 -38%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$63 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +72%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 23 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 21 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 21 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 10 $111 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 09 $101 −$96 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 09 $107 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 09 $106 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 09 $102 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 08 $106 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 08 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 06 $3 +$5 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 06 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 06 $19 −$11 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 06 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 06 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 06 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 05 $61 −$26 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 05 $40 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 03 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 01 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 01 $26 +$6 +22%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 26 $5 +$12 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 26 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 26 $6 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 34h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 32¢ $1 34h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $17 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 30d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? BUY No 0¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $1.93 · 216 history records