Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c07…5214 crypto 22 markets active 4d ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$58,003 (-67%) realized −$53,387 · open −$4,616
Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 18L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,918per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$12,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$479
14 days−$479
30 days−$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$42,596
economics 22% −$11,564
world 3% −$1,357
sports 2% −$2,139
tech 2% −$1,306
politics 1% −$999
other 1% −$790
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-84.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -48.2% -53.1% 50% 0% -20.6%
≤30d 2 -48.2% -53.1% 50% 0% -20.6%
≤90d 2 -48.2% -53.1% 50% 0% -20.6%
all 20 -83.0% -84.6% 10% 0% -83.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -84.6% 0% -83.9%
10% ← realistic here -86.1% 0% -85.4%
15% -87.4% 0% -86.8%
20% -88.7% 0% -88.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$5,400) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -100% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$3,131 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$12,487
Realized−$53,387
Unrealized−$4,616
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage523d
Avg bet$3,918
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes $10,101 $9,129 −$973 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes $7,001 $3,358 −$3,643 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $3,309 +$121 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $615 −$600 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 02 $3,000 −$1,357 -45%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 28 $5,194 −$5,194 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 28 $491 −$491 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $7,354 −$1,860 -25%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 06 $1,486 +$106 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4? Apr 04 $2,830 −$2,830 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80000 on April 4? Apr 04 $17,595 −$17,593 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $1,426 −$1,426 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $300 −$300 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 20 $1,306 −$1,306 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 13 $5,678 −$5,678 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 09 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Suns vs. Hornets Jan 07 $2,139 −$2,139 -100%
US inauguration on January 20? Jan 07 $790 −$790 -100%
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 07 $5,400 −$5,400 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 07 $999 −$999 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes $357 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes $167 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes $88 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes $236 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes $270 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes $270 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes $32 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes $478 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes $115 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes $1,065 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes $374 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,486.81 · official $12,494.54 (match) · 288 history records