Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c0c…a631 crypto 34 markets active 2d ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$9
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$17
weather 29% −$19
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -5.4% -14.4% 33% 33% -12.1%
≤30d 17 -16.6% -24.5% 29% 29% -17.1%
≤90d 17 -16.6% -24.5% 29% 29% -17.1%
all 34 -11.1% -19.5% 53% 35% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 35% -12.5%
10% -27.2% 26% -20.9%
15% -34.3% 15% -28.6%
20% -40.7% 15% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage173d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $41 +$48 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$40 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$43 +168%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$33 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$23 +225%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -37%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 25 $32 +$10 +30%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 25 $58 +$21 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 25 $53 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 25 $49 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Dec 25 $70 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Dec 24 $98 +$23 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 24 $49 +$14 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Dec 24 $77 +$7 +9%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Dec 24 $65 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 24 $54 +$11 +20%
XRP Up or Down - December 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 24 $40 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Dec 24 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 24 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 24 $16 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $41 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 96¢ $89 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $25 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $26 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $48 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 0¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $32 174d
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $47 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $58 174d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records