Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7C 0x7c0d…19b1 world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$21 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate51%23W / 22L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$13
other 24% +$4
crypto 14% +$1
tech 4% +$1
culture 2% +$5
politics 2% −$1
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 17% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 15 +2.3% -7.4% 27% 13% -7.2%
≤90d 15 +2.3% -7.4% 27% 13% -7.2%
all 45 -0.7% -10.2% 51% 11% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 11% -7.5%
10% -18.8% 4% -16.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -24.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.96 per $1 lost it wins $10.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses23 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage405d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ 88¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $6 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $18 +$1 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $53 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +11%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $4 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $40 +$7 +17%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 27 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Federico Dimarco be named the Champions League Final man of the m Jun 01 $11 $0 +2%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 31 $1 $0 +10%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Hegseth caught drinking before June? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 28 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 27 $4 $0 +4%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 27 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 25 $1 $0 -14%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will 'Fatal' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 23 $3 −$2 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $103K on May 23? May 22 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 22 $23 +$2 +11%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 18 $20 +$5 +22%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 18 $27 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $49 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $16 16h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $11 18h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $5 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $52 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $52 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $14 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $20 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $21 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $54 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 46h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $27 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.06 · official $53.06 (match) · 167 history records