Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c0e…8177 sports 1381 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,785 (-5%) realized −$3,711 · open −$74
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%816W / 537L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$826est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days+$307
14 days−$1,056
30 days−$1,452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$2,740
other 5% −$397
world 1% −$453
crypto 0% −$49
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +44.0% +30.3% 71% 69% -0.8%
≤30d 305 +6.0% -4.1% 62% 60% -14.4%
≤90d 1108 +0.2% -9.4% 60% 57% -13.5%
all 1353 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 57% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 57% -13.3%
10% -17.1% 51% -21.6%
15% -25.1% 43% -29.2%
20% -32.4% 32% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$44 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized−$3,711
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses816 / 537
Est. fees paid−$826
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1353 / 1381
History coverage235d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $210 $160 −$50 (-24%)
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS DK 84¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 442 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $432 −$347 -80%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$19 +78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $93 +$18 +20%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $49 +$31 +64%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: Jun 26 $30 +$21 +70%
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $117 +$69 +59%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $35 +$26 +73%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $25 +$24 +94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 25 $158 +$22 +14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24 Jun 25 $41 +$31 +76%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Qatar w Jun 25 $51 +$41 +80%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 24 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $10 +$106 +1006%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $55 +$22 +40%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $26 $0 +0%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $20 +$24 +118%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $29 +$24 +83%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Po Jun 24 $20 +$33 +162%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $31 +$19 +62%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win Jun 23 $14 +$33 +228%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 AND Spread: Jordan (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Sene Jun 23 $46 +$46 +101%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$21 +105%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $28 −$28 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $60 +$44 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$14 +90%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 AND Jun 23 $102 +$51 +50%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 +$107 +105%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $69 −$68 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $49 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $23 −$23 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $97 +$31 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $223 +$71 +32%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 +$21 +42%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 +$70 +69%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 AND Netherlands vs. S Jun 20 $25 +$26 +104%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $32 +$17 +54%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $162 +$64 +40%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 +$25 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY DK 84¢ $101 2h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 17¢ $85 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $93 5h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY 55¢ $25 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 67¢ $50 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 51¢ $51 7h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 78¢ $50 19h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 60¢ $49 21h
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL 68¢ $53 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 70¢ $101 30h
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY 64¢ $51 30h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: BUY 58¢ $30 30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $117 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 40h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $35 40h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY 49¢ $15 44h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 AND Will BUY 42¢ $20 44h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY 51¢ $25 44h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 84¢ $131 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 84¢ $121 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 83¢ $181 2d
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 87¢ $158 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 38¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 34¢ $10 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3 BUY 38¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-2 BUY 68¢ $50 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24 BUY 56¢ $41 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $65 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Qatar w BUY 55¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.25 · official $286.25 (match) · 3024 history records