Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c0f…b777 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$76 (-13%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$113
sports 26% +$39
other 10% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -30.6% -37.2% 47% 47% -23.4%
≤30d 17 -30.6% -37.2% 47% 47% -23.4%
≤90d 17 -30.6% -37.2% 47% 47% -23.4%
all 17 -30.6% -37.2% 47% 47% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.2% 47% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -43.2% 41% -30.7%
15% -48.7% 35% -37.4%
20% -53.7% 24% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $24 −$23 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +39%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $43 +$24 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $56 −$2 -4%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $34 +$5 +14%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $40 +$18 +44%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$25 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $68 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $39 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Wil BUY 10¢ $10 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 64¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 50 history records