Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c10…335d other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$138 (-0%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%6W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,312per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$68
politics 45% −$76
world 2% −$3
sports 2% −$14
culture 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +2.0% -7.7% 6% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -0.9% -10.4% 6% 4% -9.6%
all 95 -0.9% -10.4% 6% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 4% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 4% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,372) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$3 · ×6.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$897
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses6 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage83d
Avg bet$1,312
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $670 $669 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $228 $227 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $3,399 −$5 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,238 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,933 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,039 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,184 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $2,073 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $992 −$2 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 04 $148 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,317 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,111 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,278 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,024 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $39 +$64 +165%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,199 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $2,298 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,182 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $2,328 −$3 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,341 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $5,242 −$8 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $1,364 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $1,381 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $2,774 −$4 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $2,431 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 13 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 12 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 12 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $228 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $670 21h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,231 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,232 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $894 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $895 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,076 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $853 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $854 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $919 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $920 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,233 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,235 10d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,182 10d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,184 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,054 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,055 11d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,267 12d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,269 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $609 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $610 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $990 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $992 13d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 13d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,128 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,117 17d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,119 17d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $804 19d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $805 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $896.74 · official $896.74 (match) · 285 history records