Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c10…c60e other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$62 (+4%) realized +$66 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$29
sports 10% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 55% 45% -0.2%
≤30d 12 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 42% -1.4%
≤90d 12 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 42% -1.4%
all 12 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 42% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 42% -1.4%
10% -25.2% 25% -10.9%
15% -32.5% 17% -19.5%
20% -39.1% 0% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$13 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage8d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $202 $198 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $146 +$60 +41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $172 −$23 -13%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $155 +$18 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $106 +$49 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 −$35 -34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $86 +$15 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 −$1 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $132 −$5 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $102 +$30 +29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $204 32m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $206 34m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 70¢ $146 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $146 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 62¢ $149 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 92¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $172 5h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 87¢ $1 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $173 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $155 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $155 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $66 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $66 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $101 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $39 35h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $86 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 79¢ $127 35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $132 39h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 92¢ $131 40h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 71¢ $102 40h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 2¢ $0 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $13 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.87 · official $197.87 (match) · 28 history records