Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c10…4253 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$3
other 27% +$2
politics 8% $0
finance 4% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% +$5
crypto 2% −$3
weather 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 18 -1.5% -10.9% 39% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 18 -1.5% -10.9% 39% 0% -9.6%
all 36 +19.3% +7.9% 42% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 6% -9.3%
10% -2.4% 6% -17.9%
15% -11.8% 6% -25.9%
20% -20.5% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage474d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $93 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $34 −$3 -10%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $39 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $47 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $43 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $39 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $43 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $3 −$1 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $35 +$4 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 23 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 22 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the Liberal Initiative win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 21 $22 $0 +1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 31 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Mar 31 $22 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $10 $0 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 24 $1 +$1 +67%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 23 $1 +$6 +671%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 22 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $41 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 37¢ $29 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 37¢ $1 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $34 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $10 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $30 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $39 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $44 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $46 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $40 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $39 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records