Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c11…48ff sports 49 markets active 8h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$617 (-22%) realized −$615 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%29W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$475
7 days−$758
14 days−$669
30 days−$669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$660
other 21% +$15
politics 7% −$7
economics 6% +$15
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -41.5% -47.0% 38% 25% -50.3%
≤30d 10 -39.4% -45.2% 40% 30% -36.1%
≤90d 10 -39.4% -45.2% 40% 30% -36.1%
all 48 -4.3% -13.4% 60% 46% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 46% -32.3%
10% -21.7% 33% -38.8%
15% -29.3% 25% -44.7%
20% -36.2% 15% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$53 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$615
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses29 / 19
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage244d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $311 $309 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $294 +$17 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $202 +$92 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $498 −$493 -99%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 13 $204 −$7 -4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $86 −$83 -96%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $103 +$17 +17%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 09 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $499 +$188 +38%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 06 $1 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 05 $1 $0 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 01 $56 +$8 +15%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 01 $1 $0 +3%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $1 $0 -11%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 22 $1 −$1 -57%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 19 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 14 $1 $0 +5%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $15 +$9 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $19 +$5 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Oct 31 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $6 +$6 +102%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $4 +$3 +69%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $20 +$2 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 28 $15 +$7 +48%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Oct 28 $1 $0 +18%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 28 $1 $0 -7%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $22 +$4 +18%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 25 $16 +$1 +8%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $5 +$1 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 21 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) Oct 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Oct 19 $1 $0 +25%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Oct 18 $2 +$2 +110%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs FlyQuest (BO1) Oct 18 $1 $0 +36%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Oct 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 17 $3 +$1 +47%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Oct 16 $3 +$4 +129%
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) Oct 16 $1 +$1 +102%
LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Oct 15 $2 +$3 +143%
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) Oct 15 $5 +$1 +26%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Oct 15 $1 $0 -4%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $311 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $294 17h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $294 17h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $498 29h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $202 39h
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL Yes 55¢ $196 39h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE $3 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 48¢ $21 44h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 44¢ $61 45h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster $31 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 60¢ $120 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE $4 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $72 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $103 4d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 55¢ $204 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $203 5d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 23¢ $102 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 72¢ $203 8d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 72¢ $296 8d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 190d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $1 190d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 191d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 196d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 88¢ $52 196d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 198d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 204d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 205d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 212d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 212d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 213d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.00 · official $309.00 (match) · 113 history records