Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c11…cd9e politics 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$519per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$6
politics 39% −$11
sports 12% −$4
world 4% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 33 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 33 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,130) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage83d
Avg bet$519
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $1,180 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,206 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 22 $1,244 $0 +0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? May 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $701 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 05 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $692 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 04 $690 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2? May 02 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $698 −$2 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $26 $0 -1%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $25 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 02 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 5m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,247 10m
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 18m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,192 26m
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 36m
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,207 42m
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 53m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,176 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $843 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $335 2h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,180 2h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 99¢ $53 18h
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $1,284 18h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $17 19h
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $1,253 19h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $14 19h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $22 19h
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $20 20h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $839 20h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $325 20h
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $13 20h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,166 20h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 40h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,239 40h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 40h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,190 41h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records