Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7c16…13b2 other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$14
politics 40% −$12
sports 6% +$69
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -1.5% -10.9% 7% 3% -9.5%
all 117 -0.0% -9.5% 9% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 5% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 5% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 4% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×13.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage113d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $270 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $575 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $215 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $426 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $167 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $160 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $149 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $180 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $400 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $480 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $241 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $258 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $242 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $195 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $424 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $246 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $968 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $281 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $271 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $265 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 4h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 4h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $40 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $40 12d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $270 20d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $270 24d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 30d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $182 32d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $182 33d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $172 35d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $172 36d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $172 36d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $172 39d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $209 39d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $209 45d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 45d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $234 45d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $215 46d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $215 46d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $170 46d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $170 46d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $167 47d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $167 47d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $160 47d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $160 47d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records