Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7c1b…fa63 crypto 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17,225 (+14%) realized +$17,225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%90W / 107L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$765per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,728
7 days−$5,617
14 days−$5,617
30 days−$5,617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$18,190
world 7% −$366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +35.7% +22.8% 23% 18% -48.9%
≤30d 56 +35.7% +22.8% 23% 18% -48.9%
≤90d 197 +28.0% +15.9% 46% 32% -1.6%
all 197 +28.0% +15.9% 46% 32% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.9% 32% -1.6%
10% +4.8% 29% -11.0%
15% ← realistic here -5.4% 25% -19.6%
20% -14.6% 21% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$781) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$187 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17,225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses90 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)197 / 158
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$765
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 197 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $434 −$434 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $110 −$125 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $172 −$175 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $322 −$322 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $455 −$455 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $382 −$382 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $437 −$437 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $877 −$877 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $247 −$247 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$29 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $616 −$735 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $267 −$267 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $255 −$255 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $0 +$155 +170799%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $348 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $874 −$874 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $1,501 +$730 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $1,367 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $495 +$85 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $318 +$82 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $59 +$41 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $1,162 +$137 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $1,215 −$364 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $348 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $7 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $17 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $23 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $63 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $36 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $36 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $12 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $46 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records