Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c1e…ebfe other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$171 (-3%) realized −$127 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate70%55W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$148
14 days−$223
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$188
sports 38% −$81
crypto 0% +$3
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +2.4% -7.3% 75% 38% -11.7%
≤30d 79 -3.6% -12.8% 70% 38% -12.8%
≤90d 79 -3.6% -12.8% 70% 38% -12.8%
all 79 -3.6% -12.8% 70% 38% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 38% -12.8%
10% -21.1% 23% -21.1%
15% -28.8% 15% -28.8%
20% -35.7% 11% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$35 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses55 / 24
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage9d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +26%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 +$2 +4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $63 −$21 -33%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $58 +$5 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $53 +$6 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $79 −$24 -31%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $30 +$13 +41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$6 +10%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $50 +$10 +20%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $40 +$7 +18%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +13%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $40 +$4 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $52 +$40 +76%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $41 +$11 +26%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $41 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$6 +17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $33 +$2 +5%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $26 +$7 +26%
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 18 $17 +$9 +55%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $45 −$29 -65%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $96 −$51 -53%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $219 −$219 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $191 +$8 +4%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$45 -45%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $267 −$11 -4%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $284 +$7 +2%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $195 +$14 +7%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $209 +$16 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $331 +$56 +17%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $130 +$12 +9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $382 +$5 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $204 −$81 -40%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $204 +$12 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $188 +$16 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 1h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 83¢ $44 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $42 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $42 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $63 17h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $63 17h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 17h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 18h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 90¢ $53 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 47¢ $53 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 68¢ $59 19h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 20h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $60 21h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 22h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 26h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 43h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 56¢ $52 47h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 79¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 172 history records