Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c1e…1351 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$1
other 21% −$1
finance 12% +$2
sports 7% −$3
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.1%
all 32 -4.6% -13.7% 34% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage478d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $64 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $82 +$2 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -29%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Wimbledon: Kecmanovic vs. Djokovic Aug 10 $6 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 05 $1 $0 -8%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $9 $0 +4%
Will the ECB announce no change? Apr 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 12 $9 $0 -2%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Navy vs. Boston Univ. Mar 05 $10 −$3 -28%
Oral Roberts vs. UMKC Mar 05 $12 $0 -1%
Chicago State vs. Long Island University Mar 05 $12 $0 -2%
Will Trump say 'Ukraine' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $41 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $5 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $25 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $7 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $36 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $14 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $27 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $34 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $34 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $21 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $25 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $46 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $29 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $7 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $22 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.86 · official $42.87 (match) · 135 history records