Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c20…e779 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-26%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$31
sports 15% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.8% -37.4% 20% 20% -55.1%
≤30d 5 -30.8% -37.4% 20% 20% -55.1%
≤90d 5 -30.8% -37.4% 20% 20% -55.1%
all 5 -30.8% -37.4% 20% 20% -55.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 20% -55.1%
10% -43.3% 20% -59.4%
15% -48.8% 20% -63.3%
20% -53.8% 20% -66.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +246%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.73 · official $29.73 (match) · 13 history records