Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7C 0x7c2e…1485 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$199 (-10%) realized −$186 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%11W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$88per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)-19.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-10.8%	-19.3%	55%	55%	-17.1%
≤30d	20	-10.8%	-19.3%	55%	55%	-17.1%
≤90d	20	-10.8%	-19.3%	55%	55%	-17.1%
all	20	-10.8%	-19.3%	55%	55%	-17.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.3%	55%	-17.1%
10%	-27.0%	40%	-25.0%
15%	-34.1%	35%	-32.3%
20%	-40.5%	25%	-38.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -31% → late +9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$50 vs −$79 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.78 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$107

Realized−$186

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses11 / 9

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 23

History coverage6d

Avg bet$88

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$50	$43	−$7 (-14%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	9¢	6¢	$20	$14	−$6 (-28%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$202	+$43	+21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$74	+73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	+$18	+172%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$19	+18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$40	+40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$20	+20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$202	+$101	+50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$101	+$22	+22%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Jun 14	$102	+$107	+106%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$101	+$53	+52%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 13	$101	−$100	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$51	+$56	+109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Jun 12	$102	−$100	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$21	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	89¢	$245	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$101	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$101	21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	37¢	$28	22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	84¢	$119	22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$141	25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$202	44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$51	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$100	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	65¢	$101	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	81¢	$101	5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$46	5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.18 · official $107.18 (match) · 42 history records