Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:55:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c2e…9e01 sports 301 markets active 0h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15,658 (+14%) realized +$15,584 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%158W / 141L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$13,574
other 8% +$84
world 0% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 299 +6.9% -3.2% 53% 51% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 51% +1.6%
10% -12.5% 49% -8.2%
15% -21.0% 46% -17.0%
20% -28.7% 43% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$557) neutral
Persistence
early +26% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$382 vs −$331 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized+$15,584
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses158 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)299 / 301
History coverage171d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Ito (+1.5) Parry 64¢ 100¢ $103 $161 +$57 (+56%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jessica Pegula 55¢ 64¢ $108 $125 +$17 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Jose State Spartans vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Feb 11 $177 −$177 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Feb 11 $594 −$594 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5 Feb 10 $611 −$611 -100%
FC Porto vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 Feb 10 $226 +$385 +170%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $340 −$340 -100%
Tjen vs. Maia: Match O/U 21.5 Feb 09 $20 +$13 +67%
Raducanu vs. Osorio: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Feb 09 $50 +$8 +17%
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Osorio (+1.5) Feb 09 $241 +$34 +14%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) Feb 09 $205 −$205 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Feb 09 $280 −$280 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5 Feb 09 $329 +$169 +51%
Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5 Feb 09 $71 +$114 +161%
Qatar Total Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Karolina Pliskova Feb 09 $302 −$2 -1%
Qatar Total Open: Emma Raducanu vs Camila Osorio Feb 09 $488 −$1 -0%
Set 1 Winner: Tjen vs Maia Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5 Feb 09 $1,124 −$158 -14%
Spread: Raptors (-8.5) Feb 08 $313 +$295 +94%
Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5 Feb 08 $100 +$82 +82%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Feb 08 $140 +$496 +354%
SC Braga vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 08 $480 −$480 -100%
Juventus FC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5 Feb 08 $401 +$275 +69%
Spread: Raptors (-9.5) Feb 08 $304 +$359 +118%
Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Feb 08 $480 +$488 +102%
Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Feb 08 $90 −$90 -100%
Juventus FC vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score Feb 08 $320 +$517 +162%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $142 −$142 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 211.5 Feb 08 $40 +$47 +117%
Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 212.5 Feb 08 $200 +$201 +100%
Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5 Feb 08 $617 +$619 +100%
Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5 Feb 08 $208 +$179 +86%
Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 Feb 08 $100 +$96 +96%
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. SD Huesca: O/U 3.5 Feb 08 $102 +$115 +113%
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 08 $101 +$174 +172%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5 Feb 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $1,502 +$802 +53%
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 08 $478 +$468 +98%
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 08 $114 −$114 -100%
FC Groningen vs. PSV: O/U 3.5 Feb 08 $113 −$113 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 08 $608 +$991 +163%
Qatar Total Open: Solana Sierra vs Karolina Pliskova Feb 08 $574 −$574 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Victoria Mboko Feb 08 $854 −$854 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Diana Shnaider vs Alycia Parks Feb 08 $446 +$1,679 +376%
Sevilla FC vs. Girona FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5 Feb 08 $335 +$112 +33%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw? Feb 08 $700 −$700 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Magdalena Frech Feb 08 $808 −$808 -100%
Stearns vs. Zvonareva: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Feb 08 $20 +$12 +62%
Eyüpspor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 3.5 Feb 08 $200 −$8 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 55¢ $109 28m
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Ito (+1.5) BUY Parry 64¢ $104 1h
San Jose State Spartans vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels BUY San Jose State Spartans 27¢ $37 129d
San Jose State Spartans vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels BUY San Jose State Spartans 27¢ $1 129d
San Jose State Spartans vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels BUY San Jose State Spartans 24¢ $20 129d
San Jose State Spartans vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels BUY San Jose State Spartans 25¢ $119 129d
Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 BUY Under 43¢ $594 129d
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 129d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 129d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 129d
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5 BUY Over 52¢ $291 130d
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5 BUY Over 52¢ $320 130d
FC Porto vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $110 130d
FC Porto vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $116 130d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-02-09? BUY Yes 32¢ $140 130d
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) BUY Sporting CP 14¢ $5 130d
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) BUY Sporting CP 15¢ $200 130d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-02-09? BUY Yes 33¢ $200 130d
Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $80 130d
Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $200 130d
Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $499 130d
Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $185 130d
Qatar Total Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Pliskova 100¢ $1,002 130d
Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $329 130d
Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 38¢ $71 130d
Qatar Total Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Pliskova 30¢ $300 130d
Qatar Total Open: Emma Raducanu vs Camila Osorio SELL Osorio 100¢ $884 130d
Qatar Total Open: Emma Raducanu vs Camila Osorio SELL Osorio 99¢ $876 130d
Set 1 Winner: Tjen vs Maia BUY Maia 16¢ $1 130d
Tjen vs. Maia: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.56 · official $285.56 (match) · 1029 history records