Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c32…5132 other 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%11W / 138L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$23
sports 26% −$33
politics 23% −$15
world 7% −$5
crypto 5% −$8
culture 4% −$5
economics 3% −$2
finance 3% +$1
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 69 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 124 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -9.9%
all 149 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses11 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage106d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $29 $0 -2%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 -5%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $68 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $54 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $928 −$2 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $61 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $108 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 09 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 09 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $99 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $54 −$3 -6%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $55 $0 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $257 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 -2%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $47 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $46 −$2 -3%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $511 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $51 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $44 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $45 8h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $53 9h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $55 16h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $56 16h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $56 21h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $41 22h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $42 26h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $54 26h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $54 32h
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 33h
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $29 40h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $47 41h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $47 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $49 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $48 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $49 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $7 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $3 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $35 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $60 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $60 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 558 history records