Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c33…f910 weather 731 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%328W / 335L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$1,972
weather 12% −$63
politics 4% +$41
sports 2% −$53
finance 1% −$26
world 0% +$3
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 204 -60.5% -64.3% 26% 13% -38.9%
≤30d 365 -1.1% -10.5% 56% 38% -22.5%
≤90d 663 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 37% -24.4%
all 663 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 37% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 37% -24.4%
10% -17.5% 30% -31.6%
15% -25.5% 24% -38.2%
20% -32.8% 19% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses328 / 335
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions44
Markets (closed)663 / 731
History coverage88d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 663 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 95¢ $6 $19 +$13 (+209%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 88¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? No 91¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 37¢ 57¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Yes 58¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Yes 49¢ 36¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 52¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+472%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 46¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+404%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 25¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1132%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? No 94¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? No 61¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? No 79¢ 67¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+684%)
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+539%)
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 89¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 4¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+201%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +344%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$6 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +276%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
ITF Grado: Margaux Maquet vs Francesca Gandolfi Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Power Slap 20: Jaidan Fa'anana-schultz vs. Luke Simonds (Fight 2) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Litija: Niklas Schell vs Luca Castagnola Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Monastir: Andre Lukosiute vs Lya Fernandez Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Gaborone: Cooper Williams vs Alec Beckley Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris: Madison Keys vs Diane Parry Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Regatas vs. Ferro Carril Oeste Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 29? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 51m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 61¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 5h
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.36 · official $124.36 (match) · 2801 history records