Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c33…3ded other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-3%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$23
world 25% +$1
finance 18% +$1
politics 15% $0
crypto 4% −$1
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.1%
all 27 -5.3% -14.3% 44% 0% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -12.5%
10% -22.5% 0% -20.8%
15% -30.0% 0% -28.5%
20% -36.8% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage445d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $117 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $24 $0 -1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? May 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $26 +$1 +2%
Will BSW be part of the next German government? Apr 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in March? Apr 08 $26 $0 -1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 08 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 07 $24 $0 +1%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 05 $1 $0 -29%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 05 $25 $0 +2%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend? Apr 02 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $44 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $44 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $40 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $2 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $37 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $6 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $25 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $14 21h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $3 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $0 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $39 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $3 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $38 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $39 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $39 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 26d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 180d
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 356d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 376d
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? BUY No 92¢ $24 401d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records